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.cb ELECTRONIC MAIL AS A PRODUCT


	Most people who have examined the ideas have concluded that an
electronic mail system will replace most of the services of the U.S.
Postal Service within ten or so years.  They envisage
a new electronic mail system spreading across the country, first with
only business subscribers and finally extending to homes.
They concern themselves with the question of who will operate such
system, the Postal Service, A.T.α&T., an existing large firm like IBM,
a new government sponsored private corporation analogous to Comsat,
one of the existing commercial networks like Telenet, or perhaps
a variety of competing networks
with different specializations or emphases.

	All these prognostications miss an important point.  There
is no need for a new network or new service.  Electronic mail can
best function as a product - not as a service.  Two products are
required: an electronic mail terminal and an electronic mail connection
for computer systems:

%3Electronic mail terminal%1.  This is a microcomputer, plus a storage
medium such as cassettes or floppy disk, plus a CRT and keyboard
terminal and an optional hard copy printer.  It is connected to
the ordinary dial-up telephone network in a standard way.  Here are
examples of how it is used.

.item←0
#. A user types

NIGHT MAIL GEORGE: Arriving UA 314 tomorrow.

	The microcomputer looks up the telephone number of George's
mail terminal on its floppy disk, waits until after 11pm for
cheap telephone rates, then telephones George's number and
delivers the message.  When George looks at his screen, the message
is there - being short - unless so many messages have been received
that the messages themselves have had to be replaced by a list of
them which can be read in turn.

#. The user types

MAIL.

	The microcomputer then prompts him for addressee, which
may be a list and other options such as who gets copies, whether
to wait for night rates, etc.  He is then given the facilities
of a display based text editor to compose his message.  His lists
may include people who will receive the message via U.S. Mail and
via a mailing service that puts the message in an addressed
envelope.

	The computer mail facility is a simple addition to existing
time-shared computer hardware.  The computer is equipped with telephone
dialers and modems just like the stand-alone mail terminal.
Logged in users can mail to individuals who have mail terminals or
who receive mail through computer systems.  In addition, programs
can generate large numbers of such messages as bills.

	It is important not to limit the computer mail capability
to analogs of paper mail.  Here are some non-standard uses:

.item←0
#. There may be a central storage of current addresses, so that if
an address has not been used in a long time or if the number doesn't
answer, and inquiry can be made.  A person or business that moves
can thus update its address in a single message.

#. Many messages are inquiries, and the reply can go back on the
same telephone connection.  These include times of arrival of
airplane flights, telephone numbers, credit verification.
If the inquiry involves interactions with the human at the terminal,
we are approaching the use of the mail terminal as an interactive
terminal.

#. For some messages authentication is important.  Unless the two
parties have been in previous communication, some use of a third
party authentication agency is probably needed, although this can
be a once-only reference.

#. Privacy can be assured by encryption when this is needed.

	The essential advantage of using the existing telephone
network is that it makes getting started easy.  A manufacturer
can begin selling terminals immediately and businesses can begin
advertising that they have them.  The first manufacturer can
establish %2de facto%1 standards.  If they are well done, they will
probably be universally adopted.

	We see a rapid improvement in terminals.  For a long time,
the 40 year equipment life sought by telephone companies
will be irrelevant.  Improved software
will offer new features.  Better displays and keyboards will become
available.  Systems will grow to accomodate personal files.  Terminals
the size of a cassette recorder will become available for travellers.

%3Costs

.item←0
#. At present rates, the telephone costs are as follows:
Night mail across the country costs α$.22 for one minute.
A stamp costs α$.13 and will increase rapidly.  The night mail
rate is at most α$.14 within California.  This will buy the
first minute which is enough to send 7200 characters at the
1200 baud rate of moderate price modems.  9600 baud is already
used by some telecopiers, and will soon be available at a reasonable
cost.  The one minute connection will permit data-base enquiries, so
that sometimes, the α$.22 will eliminate two stamps.
The daytime cross-country minimum is α$.54 and α$.64 within
California.
If telephone companies reduce further the minimum length of call,
as is done in Europe, electronic mail becomes yet cheaper, since
most messages will be short.

#. Like a telephone-answering machine, a mail terminal can piggyback
on the user's existing telephone connection.  This will not increase
the busy time of the telephone much unless the user starts using it
for interactive use of someone's computer system - e.g. for playing
games or reading the news.  Then he will want to order another telephone
connection.  A combined mail terminal and voice-type telephone answerer
can be made in which the call is diverted to the mail processor when
suitable beeps are recognized and is otherwise recorded on a voice tape.

#. The present retail price of a suitable display and keyboard is
α$900.  A suitable microcomputer system including cassette is about
another α$1,000.  The price of modems now depends sharply on performance,
with a low speed modem costing about α$200 and very high speed modems
several thousand dollars.  The high speed modems now have a very small
market, and one can expect all costs to reduce.

	We estimate that a complete mail terminal oriented at a market
of 2,000 might sell for α$2,000, aimed at a 20,000 market α$1,500 and
at a 200,000 market α$1,000.  Fundamentally, the amount of electronics
in a terminal is less that that of a color TV set, so prices could
go into the range of a few hundred dollars rather quickly.  Because
no new type of manufacturing capability is require, e.g. no color picture tube,
and all components are already produced in substantial quantities, these
costs should be realized much sooner than they were for color TV.

	The present legal situation for mail terminals is just fine.
There is no guarantee that someone, e.g. Western Union or the Postal
Service, won't try to get national or state legislation
or FCC or public utility commission decisions restricting this competition.
The best protection against this is a prompt start before new monopolies
are created so that many purchasers and marketers of terminals
will act to protect their interests.

	Electronic mail is now being technologically assesed by various
government agencies and think tanks.  The winner, however, will be the
company that realizes that the time to market a mail terminal is now.